Wildfire Forecast 2026

2026 Outlook: Wildfire Risk is Heating Up

Key Takeaways:

• Accuweather predicts earlier-than-usual wildfire activity driven by widespread drought in 2026
• Kinsale offers flexible, nationwide Property coverage solutions for Commercial Property, Small Property, Agribusiness Property, & High Value Homeowners
• For brokers with residential and commercial property accounts to consider, now is the time to act

“Wildfire season” usually indicates when a region is most at risk for wildfire activity. Recent years, however, have proven that wildfires have a mind—and timing—of their own.

With drought conditions impacting more than 40% of the U.S., AccuWeather forecasts an earlier-than-usual start to the 2026 wildfire season. Elevated spring risk is expected across the interior West, the Plains, and parts of Florida and the mid-Atlantic, while fire concerns in California are projected to increase by May.

Whether reviewing existing policies for coverage gaps or building strong protection strategies for new accounts, our Property teams are here to help with specialized coverage in ALL 50 states.

Protect your Property accounts before wildfires start. Get the conversation started today!

Commercial Property
Request a Quote	$10M in total capacity Ground-up: TIV of $10M or less Primary: TIV up to $35M Primary Quota Share: Options for accounts with schedules up to $250M in TIV Excess: In or out of the PML, Buffer, & quota share layers for risks up to $5B in TIV, with larger TIVs considered case by case
Small Property
Request a Quote	Accounts with a TIV of $5M or less All Risk and Single Peril coverage on a ground-up basis Deductibles starting at $500 Minimum premium of $1,000 for all classes
Agribusiness Property
Request a Quote	$10M in total capacity Ground-up: TIV of $10M or less Primary: TIV up to $25M Excess: In or out of the PML, Buffer, & quota share layers for risks up to $5B in TIV, with larger TIVs considered case by case
High Value Homeowners
Request a Quote	Primary limits up to $5M for homes valued at $1M+ Primary coverage on a primary or ground-up basis in 29 states & DC Excess options up to $10M (unsupported only) Follow-Form Excess available on an unsupported basis in all 50 states Can sit in excess of sublimits on the primary coverage

Explore the Potential of Property coverages from Kinsale.